Marinscope
Despite news that masks in the Bay Area are on their way out, the devil’s in the details. And Marin is still a ways from the finish line.
Health leaders in the nine Bay Area counties issued guidelines last week for the end of masks. A county has to qualify for the “yellow” tier. That means that for three weeks Marin must have a case rate ranging from 10 – 49.99 per 100,000 people and a positive test rate ranging from 5% to 7.99%.
Hospitalization rate must also remain “low.” What is “low,” exactly, is determined by local health officials. And finally, 80% of the county’s total population (including children) must be fully vaccinated.
Marin is weeks — perhaps months — away from qualifying for the “yellow” tier.
Marin’s case rate is: 62.59; the county’s positive test rate is 1.77% and Marin’s total population vaccination rate (including children) is 80%. Hospitalization rate: 4.2 per 100,000.
“We’re not there yet,” Dr. Matt Willis said last week. Marin is in the “orange” tier, which is considered a “substantial” rate of transmission.
How long it will take to get mask free in Marin depends on the factors outlined above, plus no relapses. It could come before Thanksgiving. It could take the rest of the year.
In the absolute best case scenario, Marin’s case rate would drop to 18 cases a week (it is currently 20) and stay there for three full weeks. That would allow Marin to qualify for mask relief in early November.
Those who are unvaccinated, however, will have to remain masked for the foreseeable future. If Marin goes into the “yellow” tier and mask relief is granted, it would apply only to the vaccinated.
Also, Gov. Gavin Newsom requires masks for everyone, vaccinated or not — in health care centers, senior care sites and public transit.
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